So far, the US Oil companies, who will be central to any US influence, have kept quiet as they know that the situation is still fluid and it is unlikely that they will be “welcomed” into Venezuela by the masses or the government. Chevron continues to operate there but its own position is more precarious now. Any positive move by US Oil companies – statements or actions – will go a long way in reviving trade. 

If the US or any of its allies/proxies decide to prop up the central bank reserves (President Trump has done it in Argentina) and a more stable Bolívar exchange rate prevails, that would suggest better trade performance and increased hard currency inflows from exports.

There is no hiding for the trade anymore. With greater use of technology, there is greater visibility of the loadings ex Venezuela. Signs of increased cargo volumes at major Venezuelan ports like Puerto Cabello and La Guaira, along with more vessel arrivals and shorter turnaround times, would signal improving trade infrastructure and commercial activity.